Crime Surge or Perception Shift?
Victoria’s latest crime statistics have painted a stark picture. For the year ending March 2025, recorded offences increased by 17.1%, with property and deception offences climbing nearly 24%. Theft alone now accounts for almost a quarter of a million offences, driven heavily by cars being broken into and a sharp rise in shoplifting.
At first glance, these figures are confronting. They suggest we are in the middle of a crime wave—but numbers don’t always tell the whole story.
The Role of Perception
Part of the reason crime feels so overwhelming is the way it is now captured and shared. More Australian homes are fitted with cameras than ever before—nearly one in five households now have CCTV, and in some suburbs that figure is closer to half. Every suspicious vehicle, break-in attempt, or person loitering at night is caught on camera and quickly broadcast across social media, Facebook groups, or WhatsApp chats.
The effect? What may once have been an isolated incident is now amplified and repeated across our feeds, creating a sense of constant threat.
It can sometimes feel like crime is happening everywhere,
all the time.
Why the Spike? The data does show a genuine increase in crime, but it’s important to understand the “why.”
Retail theft is up more than 46%, largely in supermarkets and retail chains.
Theft from motor vehicles has surged, up by more than 23,000 incidents in the past year.
Most of these are low-level property offences, not sophisticated heists or gangs of master criminals.
The reality is simple: the cost-of-living crisis is biting hard. For many, financial pressure leads to desperate decisions. That doesn’t excuse crime, but it does help explain why theft is increasing across communities.
A Compassionate Lens
Behind every statistic is a human story. Families struggling with bills, young people locked out of secure work, individuals making poor decisions under stress. While we must take crime seriously, we should also temper our response with understanding.
The challenge is to balance empathy with vigilance: to be aware of the pressures driving crime, but also to protect what matters most—our homes, businesses, and communities.
What You Can Do
For households:
Always lock your car and remove valuables, even when parked at home.
Secure doors and windows when you’re away or at night.
If it helps you feel safer, consider a home alarm or CCTV system—not as a panic measure, but as a layer of reassurance.
For businesses:
Don’t fall into the trap of buying “more cameras” without strategy.
Work with a specialist security provider who can design efficient, tailored systems—balancing CCTV, alarms, and access control to deliver real results.
Educate staff on good security habits, from locking up properly to reporting suspicious behaviour.
Final Word
Crime is up, but fear doesn’t have to be. The statistics are clear, but so too are the reasons behind them. By staying alert, taking sensible precautions, and seeking expert advice where it matters, we can respond thoughtfully—without hysteria, without overreaction, and without losing sight of the people behind the numbers.
